Goalie Fights: Because you are more of a winner if the loser has less teeth

Sunday, May 15, 2011

How to Fix the Flyers

Hello Readers, and welcome to another Sunday frolic through the field of sports, compliments of Goalie Fights.

First and foremost, condolences to those close to Derek Boogaard. It is always tragic to see such a loss of life.

Todays topic, for those of you eager to dive right into it, is the state and possible future of the Flyers. Considering that there are key members of the team reaching geriatric stage, and there are MASSIVE internal issues with the chemistry of this team, 'adjustments' are going to be needed this offseason if the front office of the Flyguys wants to cash in on the window of opportunity available to them. Lets take a look at what Holmgren and company should do, complete with the likelihood that they will make each move. Then, we'll all have waffles and ice cream. Boom boom, acka lacka lack.

Lets start with what I know Flyers fans consider their biggest hole, even though they are wrong (I'll explain in a minute). Goaltending. Oh, the groans are audible from here (yes, I can hear into the future). I'll admit, over the last two years, the Flyers have suffered both one of the most epic goaltending circuses ever for a playoff team and the softest goal ever allowed to clinch a Stanley Cup. Both were painful to watch as a hockey fan, so I know it had to be that much worse for you Broadstreet Hooligans out there. That said, this years collapse/circus was entirely Laviolette's fault, and his idiocy will have lasting repercussions for the Flyers. As I have written before, Laviolette should never have taken Bob out of game 2, Boucher should never have played a minute of any game, and Leighton should never have even SNIFFED dressing a game, let alone playing in one. Literally three of the worst coaching decisions I've ever seen in the playoffs of any sport, right up there with Grady Little leaving Pedro in there against the Yankees and the Giants punting to DeSean Jackson (oh, that wasn't in the playoffs? well suck it anyway Giants). Frustrations aside, it is now likely in my professional opinion that Bob's confidence is thoroughly enough destroyed that he will not be a legit number one goalie on a team coached by Laviolette, and he was probably set back 2 full years in his development thanks to the mindf*ck he received courtesy of Angry Pete. This means, the Flyers are going to need a goaltender. So lets get down to business.

Goaltending

Bob is making 1.75 mil a season, and Boucher is making 925k. That said, Boucher is 34 years old and garbage. I know there are those of you out there who LOVE Philadelphia's former first round pick (bet you forgot that, didn't you?) but he is not good. He also isn't a long term piece for this team in any capacity. Luckily, he's an UFA. Let him walk, especially when you can bring in...

Ilya Bryzgalov. The big Bryz is a UFA who, my inside sources tell me, will not be resigning with the 'Yotes. This means the Flyers should make him priority number one. He's reasonably young at 31, and is as dominant a starting goalie as any we've seen in a free agent class in a while. The flip side of all those good things is that it will be costly to sign him, but I'm guessing its not going to be as bad as you might think. Good goaltenders around the league are getting between 5 and 6 million a year (Brodeur, Luongo, Kiprusoff) and even foundation guys like Ryan Miller and Henrik Lundqvist are only in the 6-7 million range. Sure, its not peanuts, but its also a goalie. Unless some scrub team like the Islanders tries to give him 8 million, or something absurd (which I actually expect), the Flyers have a great shot at getting him, if they will pony up the dough. Even if some crap team makes a ludicrous offer, Bryz wants to go to a contender, I'm sure, so the Flyers have got to look good.

Question: Where do the Flyers find 6 million in cap space to sign him? Answer: The cap is expected to rise by about $3 million, so there is half. Existing cap plus Boucher's money is another million, so there is $4m. $2m more that was going to Zherdev that won't anymore because they won't resign him either, and you have $6m pretty easily, with no drastic changes needed. Odds on this happening: 70%

As a backup plan, though, Tomas Vokoun will also be available this offseason. If the Flyers can't get Bryz, they should pursue Vokoun. He is very good as well, and there is even an outside shot he is better (tough to tell because Bryz plays on much better defensive team). His downside is he is older, but the Flyers could easily cash in and win one in the next three years. Odds: 20%, unless they can't get Bryz, in which case I'd say about 55%.

Defense

Building from the back, here we reach what I consider the second biggest flaw in the Flyers; their D. For whatever reason, the D corps for the Flyers is absurdly inconsistent, to the point of making the goalies look worse than they actually are. Matt 'Who taped over my blades' Carle, Braydon 'I spend more time on my hair than my game' Coburn, and Kimmo 'Therapy' Timonen are making a combined $13m. Outrageous.

For Coburn and Carle, trade them or send them down to the minors, Rangers style, to avoid the cap hit. Literally, both those guys are 3rd pair, $1m per year defensemen making first and second pair money. I'm sure you can trade Carle, and I would even say you can get good return on him, say, a Keaton Ellerby of the Panthers, for a lower cap number to fill in your third pair. Coburn is tougher, because he is worse, and its really apparent. It'll be tough to get a team to buy him, so the flyers will probably have to just bury him in Adirondack. No matter what, though, the Flyers will need the combined 6.5 million they'll save from dumping them both. Odds for each individual are the same: 80% one of them gets moved 43% they both go.

Timonen is a tough matter from the ntc perspective and the recognition of how much he's given to the Flyers, but he clearly well past his prim, and he is making the 2nd most money on the team (behind only Briere). You can't keep him if you want a cup. If he can be talked into being traded, there are definitely teams that would take him (the Oilers are a prime example, or some other young team looking for leadership), There is no chance the Flyers bury him in the minors, but I expect them to threaten it if he won't agree to a trade. His $6.5m is crucial money, too, though for the Flyers. Odds: 15%, even though this one should be about 98%.

To fill these voids, the Flyers (if they followed my plan) ought to get a second liner in a trade, a third liner in a trade, sign a second liner in free agency, and call up a second/third liner (Erik Gustafsson). Shelley may or may not stay, no biggie either way. Meszaros is a first liner, along with Pronger. It would be a lot of new guys, and they'd need a chance to gel, but I think the fresh blood and youth would really invigorate what has become a plodding defense. Plus, the 13m they'd save, minus 5m or so for the new guys, plus the 3m jump in Giroux's salary, still leaves 4-5 million to work with. That is opens up some doors.

Forwards

The strength and weakness of the Flyers is up front. Highest skill, highest production, most consistency. Worst leadership of any playoff team from its 'leaders' outside of Vancouver (where Ryan Kesler should be the captain). Similarly, we have a young rising star who is both highly skilled and highly gritty in Claude Giroux here in Philly who seems more and more to me all the time to be the future of the franchise. There is little doubt anymore that he will be the best player on the team in the next 3-5 years, but what strikes me most about him is how he is maturing into a leader. I really see him as the future captain, which adds to the already massive problem the Flyers have, namely, Mike Richards.

Don't get me wrong, he's a great player, and a nightmare for the opposition on the PK, but he is an atrocious captain. Any team that can't play all 60 minutes of a single game in a season has leadership issues, but its worse than just that. Pronger, who I loathe but respect as a great player and leader, hates Richards for how shitty of a leader he is, the front office is now questioning their choice of him as the C, and obviously the players aren't all on board given how their season went down the shitter as the season wound down. Unacceptable, if you want to win a cup. This move is not about salary, its about making the right moves and fixing chemistry. I know the Philly Phans love how gritty he is, but I guarantee the Flyers don't win a cup while Mike Richards is the captain. Trading him, however they have to do it, needs to happen. Perhaps thats how the flyers could get rid of a Braydon Coburn type, and in return get something like a Keith Yandle. Actually, a Richards for Yandle trade would be a huge move for the flyers. They have been talking a lot about trading Carter, but its Richards they should be considering. Make Pronger the captian until Giroux is ready to wear the C, then let Claude lead the way. Odds of Richards getting moved: 5%, but it should be 99%

If the Flyers followed all my directions, they'd have $10m in space to work with. That resigns Ville Leino for a long time, and signs a big name forward that can fill any role the Flyers may need filled. Or, a couple smaller names that can really mesh well into the team. There are a lot of good looking FA coming up on both O and D that could help the Flyers, and going into it with 10+ million in cap space would allow a good but flawed team to become a great team, maybe even a dynasty team.

The only other move I can see that would improve the Flyers is dumping Scott Hartnell. Again, gritty guy Flyers fans like, but he is terrible. He also is making 4.2m. To put that in perspective, here are players in the NHL making less or the same as that: Johan Franzen, every player on the St. Louis Blues, Shane Doan, Patrick Sharp, Pekka Rinne, Shea Weber, Joe Pavelski, and Dustin Penner. Does that seem like the kind of player Hartnell is? Maybe if the highest you can count to is potato. But you read Goalie Fights, so you can count higher, to at least Zanzibar. Odds on Snott Fartnell moving: 13%.

So there you have it. The Flyers, with a little hard work and ingenuity, could be backstopped by a top 10 goalie, sport a stout, young, energetic defense, and have one of the dirtiest, deepest lineups in all of hockey, with a new captain to boot! Also, a Stanley Cup ring ;).

I know the Flyers won't follow my plan, but they should. Because it would not only kick serious ass, but make the Flyers tremendously better. I'm rooting for you, Flyers Fans.

Shout outs to the OKC Durantulbrooks, who look poised to finish of Memphis and go to the West Semis, and the Heatles, because LBJ is good.

Also, Doc Ellis, just because.

Muck the Fets.

No comments:

Post a Comment